شاخص (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO

(Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO

نوسان دهه ا ی اقیانوس آرام

PDO يك پديده اقليمي ست كه با پايداري الگوهاي اقليمي دو فازي در اقيانوس آرام شمالي همراه است و با دوره هاي زماني از مرتبه 50 سال نوسان مي كند (يك فاز مشخص PDO معمولا در حدود 25 سال پايدار مي ماند). تاثيرات فاز گرم PDO (مقدار مثبت شاخص عددي) مشابه تاثيرات فاتز گرم ENSO و تاثيرات فاز سرد PDO (مقدار منفي شاخص عددي) مشابه فاز سرد ENSO است. شاخص نوسانات ده ساله اقيانوس آرام (PDO Index) با استفاده از الگوهاي دماي سطح دريا (SST)  در اقيانوس آرام شمالي تعيين مي گردد. فاز مثبت (منفي) PDO خود را به صورت SST هاي كمتر (بيشتر) از حالت نرمال در بخش مركزي اقيانوس آرام نشان مي دهد.

فاز گرم (+) , سرد (-) شاخص PDO.

مقايسه فاز گرم (+) شاخص PDO و فاز گرم (+) شاخص ENSO (النينو).

نمودار مقادير شاخص PDO (اتو آپديت):

PDO Index Monthly Values:January 1900-present

پیش بینی پارامتر ها

	24	48	72	96	120	144	168	3 - day rainfall	1 week rainfall	2 week rainfall
منظر آفریقا
منظر اروپا

	1 week rainfall	1 week rainfall
منظر آفریقا
منظر آسیا

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	3 - day rainfall
Global

1 week rainfall	2 week rainfall

CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/

CFSv2 Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

CFS Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/cfsFcst/cfsMonPlot/

CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/

NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/

CFS Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies for Apr 2012

CFS Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies for

Apr 2012
(Updated: Thu Mar 29 07:00:32 EDT 2012)

This page provides monthly climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). Four forecast runs are produced each day for 9 target months. Initial conditions are from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 (R2) for the atmosphere and from NCEP global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) for the ocean. The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of 4 forecast members from initial conditions of the latest available day. All anomalies are with respect to 1981-2006 hindcast climatology.  

Apr 2012 monthly mean anomalies from the 4 latest members initial condition

Initial Condition	SST	Prec	T2m	z200	z700	US Prec	US T2m
Mar. 27, 2012
Mar. 26, 2012
Mar. 25, 2012
Mar. 24, 2012
Mar. 23, 2012
Mar. 22, 2012
Mar. 21, 2012

Summary of the monthly mean forecast over the US regions

	US Prec		US T2m
	spatial map	skill	spatial map	skill
Apr. 2012 from Mar. 2012 initial conditions
Mar. 2012 from Feb. 2012 initial conditions
Feb. 2012 from Jan. 2012 initial conditions
Jan. 2012 from Dec. 2011 initial conditions
Dec. 2011 from Nov. 2011 initial conditions
Nov. 2011 from Oct. 2011 initial conditions
Oct. 2011 from Sep. 2011 initial conditions
Sep. 2011 from Aug. 2011 initial conditions
Aug. 2011 from Jul. 2011 initial conditions
Jul. 2011 from Jun. 2011 initial conditions
Jun. 2011 from May. 2011 initial conditions
May. 2011 from Apr. 2011 initial conditions
Apr. 2011 from Mar. 2011 initial conditions
Mar. 2011 from Feb. 2011 initial conditions
Feb. 2011 from Jan. 2011 initial conditions
Jan. 2011 from Dec. 2010 initial conditions
Dec. 2010 from Nov. 2010 initial conditions
Nov. 2010 from Oct. 2010 initial conditions
Oct. 2010 from Sep. 2010 initial conditions
Sep. 2010 from Aug. 2010 initial conditions
Aug. 2010 from Jul. 2010 initial conditions
Jul. 2010 from Jun. 2010 initial conditions
Jun. 2010 from May. 2010 initial conditions
May. 2010 from Apr. 2010 initial conditions
Apr. 2010 from Mar. 2010 initial conditions
Mar. 2010 from Feb. 2010 initial conditions
Feb. 2010 from Jan. 2010 initial conditions
Jan. 2010 from Dec. 2009 initial conditions
Dec. 2009 from Nov. 2009 initial conditions

CFS monthly SST forecast verfification and diagnosis

Jan. 2008	Feb. 2008	Mar. 2008	Apr. 2008	May 2008	June 2008
July 2008	Aug. 2008	Sep. 2008	Oct. 2008	Nov. 2008	Dec. 2008
Jan. 2009	Feb. 2009	Mar. 2009	Apr. 2009	May 2009	June 2009
July 2009	Aug. 2009	Sep. 2009	Oct. 2009	Nov. 2009	Dec. 2009
Jan. 2010	Feb. 2010	Mar. 2010	Apr. 2010	May 2010	June 2010
July 2010	Aug. 2010	Sep. 2010	Oct. 2010	Nov. 2010	Dec. 2010

Send your comments to: Mingyue Chen

CFSv2 Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies for Apr 2012

CFSv2 Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies for

Apr 2012
(Updated: Thu Mar 29 09:39:06 EDT 2012)

This page provides monthly climate anomalies from the NCEP version 2 coupled forecast system model (CFSv2). The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of the latest available 16 or 21 members. All anomalies are with respect to the climatology from entire hindcast period (1982-2010) without any adjustment.  

CFSv2 hindcast monthly mean skill

Apr 2012 monthly mean anomalies from the latest initial condition (16 or 21 members)

Initial Condition	SST	Prec	T2m	z200	z700	US Prec	US T2m
Mar. 29, 2012
Mar. 28, 2012
Mar. 27, 2012
Mar. 26, 2012
Mar. 25, 2012
Mar. 24, 2012
Mar. 23, 2012
Mar. 22, 2012
Mar. 21, 2012
Mar. 20, 2012
Mar. 19, 2012
Mar. 18, 2012
Mar. 17, 2012
Mar. 16, 2012
Mar. 15, 2012
Mar. 14, 2012
Mar. 13, 2012
Mar. 12, 2012
Mar. 11, 2012
Mar. 10, 2012
Mar. 09, 2012
Mar. 08, 2012
Mar. 07, 2012
Mar. 06, 2012
Mar. 05, 2012
Mar. 04, 2012
Mar. 03, 2012
Mar. 02, 2012
Mar. 01, 2012

Summary of the monthly mean forecast over the US regions

	US Prec		US T2m
	spatial map	skill	spatial map	skill
Apr. 2012 from Mar. 2012 initial conditions		skill201204		skill201204
Mar. 2012 from Feb. 2012 initial conditions		skill201203		skill201203
Feb. 2012 from Jan. 2012 initial conditions		skill201202		skill201202
Jan. 2012 from Dec. 2011 initial conditions		skill201201		skill201201
Dec. 2011 from Nov. 2011 initial conditions		skill201112		skill201112
Nov. 2011 from Oct. 2011 initial conditions		skill201111		skill201111
Oct. 2011 from Sep. 2011 initial conditions		skill201110		skill201110
Sep. 2011 from Aug. 2011 initial conditions		skill201109		skill201109
Aug. 2011 from Jul. 2011 initial conditions		skill201108		skill201108
Jul. 2011 from Jun. 2011 initial conditions		skill201107		skill201107
Jun. 2011 from May. 2011 initial conditions		skill201106		skill201106
May. 2011 from Apr. 2011 initial conditions		skill201105		skill201105
Apr. 2011 from Mar. 2011 initial conditions		skill201104		skill201104
Mar. 2011 from Feb. 2011 initial conditions		skill201103		skill201103
Feb. 2011 from Jan. 2011 initial conditions		skill201102		skill201102
Jan. 2011 from Dec. 2010 initial conditions		skill201101		skill201101

Seasonal mean forecast

Weekly mean forecast

Global Tropical Hazards

کلیماتولوژی پارامترها

CFSR real-time surface variables Jan 1998 to Jan 2012 Spatial average anomalies (1981-2010 climatology)
 Solar radiation glb lnd ocn Longwave radiation glb lnd ocn Latent hflx glb lnd ocn Sensible hflx glb lnd ocn OLR glb lnd ocn Cloud cover Total Low Middle High Convective Boundary T2m glb lnd ocn Preciputation glb lnd ocn Runoff lnd Precipitable water glb Soil moisture NH Tropics SH U10m Tropical Pacific Sea ice concentration 50N-90N Sea ice thickness 50N-90N slp/ hgt-500/ olr/ precip/ winds-200/ winds-850/climatology and mean bias SST indices   Seasonal Variable climatology mean bias Nino1+2 SST Nino3 SST Nino34 SST Nino4 SST MDR SST IODMI SST Seasonal spatial maps   climatology (forecast) mean bias Variable\Inital month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SST z200 z700 Prec T2m T850 Soil Moisture NA Prec NA T2m NA T850 NA Soil Moisture   climatology (observation) Variable\Inital month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SST z200 z700 Prec T2m T850 Soil Moisture NA Prec NA T2m NA T850 NA Soil Moisture